Monday, May 24, 2010

Media hawking for selloff

Thu May 24, 2010 (3.15pm):

DJI: -131.73(-1.29%)
SPX: -15.49 (-0.69%)

I was away from the markets today. Pre-open futures were low and popular news services were hawking "major selloff" earlier on in the day. Market traded sideways most of the day, lacking direction. Hit the low and bounced off it. Still keeping above the support level of 1066 on the SPX, IWM makes for a clear bounce of its low of 62.89 (its 200 SMA). In the short term I'm leaning towards a upward move in the broader market although there is no saying which corner spews some bad news, the market is not very confident.
Once again we had a large sell off in the last 10 mins, something to watch out for.

Friday, May 21, 2010

That was close

Thu May 21, 2010 (10.15pm):

Sold off early on in the morning as I had expected and bounced off a low (lower low than the flash sell off, but only marginally). Last 10 mins saw a +100pt rally which doesn't exactly spell confidence but a rally it was. So via manipulation or otherwise we have bounced off the low. Next week we'll try and see if we can hold on to it.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Broke SMA(50) support of 1100

Thu May 20, 2010 (11.50pm):

DJI: -376.36 (-3.6%)
SPX: -43 (-3.9%)
CL: -0.73 (+1.03%)
GLD: -0.79 (-0.68%)

Major break below the SPX SMA(200) the 1100 support level was broken vehemently. Next level to watch was the low from the Feb 6 flash sell off of 1065.79. ES futures after hours touched the level so tomorrow open looks likely to to retest although the market appears a bit oversold so a bounce off it might be likely.

Media is reporting the major correction to be in place and talk of an extended bear market (now that SPX is below the SMA(200). Bank regulation bill passed senate and is up for reconciliation, not sure how the market shall perceive it, negatively isn't such a bad guess.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

SPX bounce off 1100 support

Wed May 19, 2010 (3.30pm) at close:
DJI: -66.58 (-0.63%)
SPX: -5.75 (-0.51%)
EUR/USD: +0.01785 (+1.46%)
CL: +1.85 (+2.67%)
GLD: -2.85 (-2.39%)

The market bounced off the important 1100 support level for the SPX, oil saw a rally ending its three week decline (futures at 71.21). Gold and silver sold off as well.

Eurozone overhang is been causing recent market turbulence with Germany imposing short selling restriction (yesterday) in order to prevent speculation on the bank stocks that own Greek debt. EUR sold off to new lows after the news.

The bounce off the SPX support and the comeback in crude, eur and gold may be read as some restoration of faith in the markets, we may want to see evidence of that in the next few days. Failure to hold this level would portend poorly for the bulls.